BlackPaper, today
Rodríguez Padilla exits Pemex after spills and fires; Sheinbaum says S&P “got it wrong”; Ebrard admits USMCA won’t close in July; Morena targets Maru Campos; Trump and Xi meet in Beijing.
Five minutes to stay informed.
Rodríguez Padilla exits Pemex
Sheinbaum announced on May 14 the departure of Víctor Rodríguez Padilla from Pemex. He is replaced by Juan Carlos Carpio Fragoso, the oil company’s CFO. Per Reuters, Rodríguez tendered his resignation twice and was refused.
Rodríguez leaves behind a chain of accidents: Dos Bocas refinery fire with 5 dead in March, the Abkatun spill, and the Salina Cruz explosion on May 11. Pemex reported debt/EBITDA of 5.8x and negative free cash flow in Q1.
Carpio is a UNAM-trained economist who served as finance director in Sheinbaum’s Mexico City government. His profile is fiscal, not oil. He arrives two days after S&P lowered Mexico’s outlook to negative on Pemex’s weight.
BlackPaper note: Putting a finance man atop Pemex is admitting the problem isn’t geological — it’s accounting. But Carpio comes from Sheinbaum’s orbit, not the market’s. If S&P wants fiscal discipline, it needs autonomy; what it sees is loyalty.
S&P cuts outlook and Sheinbaum says they “got it wrong”
S&P shifted Mexico’s outlook from stable to negative on May 12. It held the BBB rating but warned net public debtwill climb to 54% of GDP by 2029. It dragged Pemex and CFE to the same level.
Sheinbaum responded: “the rating agency got it wrong” and “we’ll turn it around.” The IPC fell 1.4% to 69,206 points. The peso closed at $17.23. Banxico projects growth below 1% for 2026 (El Financiero, May 14, 2026 (in Spanish)).
BlackPaper note: The same day Sheinbaum says S&P “got it wrong,” she removes the Pemex chief. If the rating agency is mistaken, why change the man in charge? The contradiction is the message.
Ebrard admits: USMCA won’t close in July
Ebrard acknowledged on May 14 that the USMCA review won’t conclude in July. He said Mexico will “probably” face annual reviews for the next ten years. Formal negotiation with the United States begins May 26.
The same day he announced signing with the EU on May 22 and trade missions to China and India. Mexico exports $17 billion in medical devices and is hunting for semiconductors and robotics.
BlackPaper note: “Annual reviews for ten years” is another name for permanent uncertainty. Each review is a window for Washington to renegotiate rules of origin. Nearshoring needs certainty; Ebrard just admitted there won’t be any.
Trump and Xi: managed trade and silence on Taiwan
Trump and Xi opened their summit in Beijing on May 14. They agreed on a framework of “constructive strategic stability” for three years. They are negotiating a Board of Trade to lower tariffs on $30 billion in non-strategic goods (CNBC, May 14, 2026).
Xi warned that Taiwan, mishandled, will lead to “clashes and even conflicts.” Musk and Jensen Huang traveled with the delegation. On Iran, Xi offered to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz at no visible cost (CNBC, May 14, 2026).
BlackPaper note: $30 billion in tariffs is less than 1% of bilateral trade. The real price of the summit is what Trump didn’t say about Taiwan in exchange for soybeans and planes. Xi offered to “help” with Hormuz at no visible cost — which makes him an arbiter, not an ally.
Warsh takes the Fed with inflation at 3.8%
The Senate confirmed Warsh as Federal Reserve chair by 54-45, the closest vote in the modern era. Only Fetterman crossed lines. Powell exits Friday. First FOMC with Warsh: June 16-17 (CNBC, May 13, 2026).
Trump expects cuts, but April’s CPI came in at 3.8%, nearly double the 2% target. Brent at $105 fuels inflationary pressure. Analysts see zero cuts in 2026 (Washington Post, May 14, 2026).
BlackPaper note: If Warsh cuts, he validates Trump and loses credibility with inflation at 3.8%. If he doesn’t, he faces Trump’s posts and a market that already prices in inaction all year. The June FOMC is a trap with no clean exit.
Briefs
251-billion-peso underspend. The Sheinbaum government booked 251.658 billion pesos unspent in Q1 2026. Physical investment fell 15.6% in real terms. Pemex left 17.687 billion unspent; CFE, 29.133 billion. Largest backlog in nine years.
Rocha: SRE says no evidence. Mexico’s Foreign Ministry (SRE) said the United States “has not provided any evidence” against Rocha Moya. The 60-day window to formalize extradition expires in late June. Mexico’s Attorney General’s office (FGR) located him but has not summoned him.
CNTE ratifies strike. The CNTE teachers union maintains an open-ended strike from June 1, coinciding with the World Cup opener on June 11. The May 11 meeting at Mexico’s National Palace produced no national agreement.
El Jardinero: U.S. expands, Mexico halts. The DOJ added methamphetamine and money-laundering charges against Audias Flores Silva, a CJNG leader. A judge in the State of Mexico stayed the extradition citing “irreparable harm to human rights” (El Financiero, May 14, 2026 (in Spanish), Infobae, May 14, 2026.
Morena targets Maru Campos. Mexico’s ruling party (Morena) announced an impeachment against the Chihuahua governor over CIA presence. March called for May 16. Campos denies prior knowledge; Sheinbaum distances herself from the march.
SCJN: Batres vs. Ríos. Justice Estela Ríos reportedly told Lenia Batres in a private meeting: “you are imposing, stubborn, and aggressive.” Batres arrived late and called her “Estelita.” Mexico’s Supreme Court (SCJN) shows internal fractures months after taking the bench.
Brent steady at $105. Crude closed at $105.63. The IEA warns of record inventory withdrawals in May and June. Since the start of the war with Iran, Brent is up more than 45% (CNBC, May 12, 2026).
On the radar
May 15 — Closing day of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. CNTE march to the Zócalo for Mexico’s Teacher’s Day.
May 16 — Morena march in Chihuahua against Maru Campos. If violence breaks out, the federal-state clash escalates.
May 22 — Signing of the Modernized Global Agreement between Mexico and the EU.
May 26 — Formal start of USMCA negotiations with the United States.
May 27 — Banxico’s quarterly report with downward revision to GDP.
June 16-17 — First FOMC with Warsh. Cut or hold defines the era.
¹ Negative outlook: not a rating downgrade. It signals at least a one-in-three probability that the rating could be lowered within the next 12 to 24 months, per S&P methodology.