BlackPaper, today
Brent drops 4% on Iran deal; Banxico cuts GDP to 1.1%; Congress approves judicial delay; Israel kills second Hamas chief; Maru invokes immunity; USMCA talks start without Greer
Five minutes to stay informed.
Hormuz draws closer: Brent at $96
Iran announced on state television it commits to restoring commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within 30 days. Brent fell 4% to $95.72 — down 16% in May, hitting a five-week low (Fortune).
The draft framework calls for a 60-day ceasefire, toll-free reopening, mine clearance in the strait, and sanctions waivers so Iran can sell crude. The U.S. lifts its port blockade. Trump warned: more strikes will follow “if talks collapse”(Axios, CNBC).
BlackPaper comment: The price already discounts the deal. If Tehran delivers, Pemex loses the expensive-crude cushion that padded its April numbers. If it falls apart, Brent snaps back above $100 and imported inflation returns to Banxico‘s table.
Banxico cuts GDP to 1.1%
The Bank of Mexico released its quarterly report and slashed the 2026 growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.1% — range 0.5% to 1.7%. The -0.8% contraction in Q1 was worse than expected. Risk balance: tilted to the downside (Excelsior, El Financiero).
The cut stems from trade uncertainty with the U.S. and the USMCA review. The 2027 forecast rises to 2.1%. The peso closed at $17.38 with a 0.24% depreciation. The IPC bounced +1.37% to 69,198 points after three losing sessions (Milenio).
BlackPaper comment: Banxico admits what the government denies: the economy isn’t growing. The -0.8%Q1 contraction coincides with April’s record exports — if everything gets exported but GDP contracts, the dynamism isn’t staying in Mexico.
The judicial reform passes — halfway
The Chamber of Deputies approved 341-124 the reform delaying the judicial election from 2027 to June 2028. It creates a Coordinating Commission and opens concurrence with the recall referendum. Amendments debated today; Senate and 17 state legislatures still pending (Infobae, Vanguardia).
The opposition charged the lottery system survives: committees screen, but a random draw decides who makes the ballot. The PRI warned of no safeguards against organized crime. Deadline: June 3 — the Constitution bars electoral reforms within 90 days of an election year (El Universal).
BlackPaper comment: Making the judicial election concurrent with the recall referendum isn’t technical — it’s electoral. Pairing Morena‘s plebiscite with the judges’ election turns the partisan electorate into the judiciary’s jury. That doesn’t fix 2025; it replays it with tighter control.
Second Hamas chief in 11 days
Israel killed Mohammed Odeh, head of Hamas‘s military wing, in an airstrike on Gaza. His wife and two children also died. Odeh had been in the post for 11 days — he replaced Izz al-Din al-Haddad, killed on May 15. Hamas confirmed the death (Al Jazeera, Washington Post).
Odeh was among the last commanders linked to the October 7 planning. Israel stepped up bombing in Lebanon and Rubio was promoted to lead ceasefire negotiations. The serial decapitation has not degraded the operational capacity of the al-Qassam Brigades (Times of Israel).
Maru Campos: immunity vs. the AG
The governor of Chihuahua appeared before the FGR in Mexico City over the CIA case — four Ground Branchagents took part in a raid on a drug superlab in the Sierra Tarahumara on April 18. Two died on the way back (Proceso, Milenio).
Campos invoked constitutional immunity and refused to testify. Her attorney Gil Zuarth argued the summons uses legal grounds for a suspect, not a witness. The FGR has opened two case files: abuse of authority and criminal liability. The PAN threatened national protests (Infobae, Heraldo).
BlackPaper comment: Maru gets summoned as a witness on suspect-grade legal grounds. Rocha Moya — accused by the DOJ of ties to the Sinaloa Cartel — was also called as a witness, but with the full protection of the government. Same format, different treatment.
In brief
USMCA talks start without Greer. Ebrard confirmed the formal USMCA review began with rounds from May 27-29 in Mexico. Greer canceled his in-person visit after being called by Trump — he’ll join by Zoom. Second round: June 16-17 in Washington. Deadline: July 1 (Tribuna, Heraldo).
Uganda shuts border over Ebola. The Bundibugyo outbreak totals 121 confirmed and 1,077 suspected cases with 238 deaths in the DRC. Uganda closed the border on May 27 — crossings only for emergencies with 21-day quarantine. No vaccine exists for this strain (CDC, Deseret News).
CNTE enters day three of strike. Section 22 blocked federal highways 190 and 175 in Oaxaca; 80% of its base is mobilized. In Mexico City, marches toward the Zocalo coincided with 17 simultaneous rallies. The June 1 national strike holds across 10 states (La Jornada, Heraldo Oaxaca).
Ukraine hits Sevastopol with Storm Shadows. The Black Sea Fleet headquarters was struck by Storm Shadowmissiles and over 20 drones. Russia claims it downed 140 drones overnight. Explosions also reported in Voronezh(US News).
U.S. to seek public input on lowering China tariffs. Greer announced a request for public comment on which “non-strategic” Chinese goods deserve lower tariffs — covering up to $30 billion in products. If they drop, the nearshoring incentive for Mexico weakens (Axios, SCMP).
On the radar
May 27-29 — First formal round of the USMCA review in Mexico. Greer virtual; his delegates in person.
May 27 — Debate on amendments in the Chamber. If approved in detail, goes to the Senate this week.
Jun 1 — CNTE national strike and encampment at the Zocalo. Collision with FIFA Fan Fest setup.
Jun 1 — Tentative date for the Iran-U.S. deal announcement, per mediators in Doha.
Jun 3 — Deadline for electoral reforms. At 90 days from the election year, the Constitution closes the window.
Jun 11 — World Cup 2026 opener at Estadio Azteca.