BlackPaper, today
Mexico and the US open the screwworm plant; the USMCA faces its July 1; a foreign truce props up the super-peso; Morena shuts Guerrero’s door on Félix Salgado
Five minutes to stay informed.
Sterile flies, stranded cattle
Mexico opens the plant Washington made a condition
Sheinbaum inaugurated on June 27 in Metapa, Chiapas, the sterile-fly plant against the screwworm, alongside US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. It cost 61 million dollars between the two countries and began operating on the 28th (Expansión).
The US added 83.8 million dollars to run it. The goal is to produce 28 million flies a week by mid-July and 100 million by year-end: the technique sterilizes the male to collapse the pest’s reproduction (El Universal, Infobae).
The backdrop is another: Washington closed its border to Mexican live cattle over the pest, and even so the screwworm reached Texas, the first case in 60 years. The closure costs Mexico 23,577 million pesos between 2025 and 2026 (Forbes).
With live cattle not crossing, exports of processed beef to the US rose 23% in the four-month period. The pest forced a shift toward feedlots and plants, not steers heading north (GBM).
BlackPaper Comment: The plant is cooperation, yes, but also the price of admission: Mexico invests to eradicate the pest that closed its market. The boom in processed beef hides the rancher who no longer exports his calf. That cost isn’t seen, and the ranch pays it.
The USMCA clock
July 1: the 16-or-10-year choice
On July 1, Mexico, the US and Canada must say whether they back extending the USMCA for 16 years. It’s no formality: it triggers the review of the treaty on which 85% of the trade Mexico sends north depends (ejecentral).
Marcelo Ebrard calls “unsustainable” the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and the 25% on cars. But his “worst case“ isn’t a rupture: it’s that the pact runs 10 years with annual reviews, a steady drip of uncertainty (Cronista).
That’s the point the official line dodges. An annual review makes permanent the doubt that scares off long-term investment. The 3rd round will be on July 20 in Mexico, with the farm and energy already on the table (El Financiero).
BlackPaper Comment: “Review, not renegotiation,” the government repeats. But when the debate is whether the treaty lasts 16 or 10 years with a clause that reopens every year, what’s negotiated is certainty. And Mexico negotiates it from defense: it sells the north 80% of what it makes.
The peso that hangs on the Gulf
A foreign truce props up the super-peso
The peso closed Monday at 17.47 per dollar and the IPC rose 0.62% to 67,640 points. The driver wasn’t Mexican: the market read that the US and Iran were returning to the table after the weekend escalation in the Gulf (Investing).
On June 17, Trump and Pezeshkian signed in Islamabad a peace pact that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. This weekend, crossfire nearly broke it; both governments agreed a truce and resumed talks (Ámbito).
WTI reacted upward, to 70.34 dollars, on the scare. For Mexico the channel is direct: every flare-up in Hormuz moves crude, imported inflation, and the debt cost of Pemex and the government (Milenio).
BlackPaper Comment: The “super-peso“ is no reward for local management: it’s held up by a truce signed in Islamabad that nearly broke in a weekend. A borrowed strength is returned when Tehran or Washington change their mood.
Morena shuts Guerrero’s door
The anti-nepotism rule stops Salgado
Félix Salgado Macedonio declined “for good” to seek the governorship of Guerrero in 2027. Morena‘s leadership, with Ariadna Montiel and Citlalli Hernández, applied the anti-nepotism rule “without exceptions“ (Infobae).
The bar is by blood: his daughter, Evelyn Salgado, is the sitting governor. The senator, who first sought a loophole in the rules, ended up yielding. “They are Morena’s rules and they are respected,” he said, and ruled out jumping to another party (La Razón).
The comfortable reading is principle over strongman. The uncomfortable one: the rule is applied by the national leadership, which thereby decides who competes and who doesn’t. Discipline outward, and centralization of the candidacy too (El Imparcial).
BlackPaper Comment: The rule punishes the surname, not the power: Evelyn still governs Guerrero. Morena spares itself a loud aspirant and, with the same gesture, concentrates in the capital the key to the 2027 candidacies. Anti-nepotism is also control.
The record that isn’t new
FDI breaks a record; fresh capital doesn’t
FDI hit an all-time high in the first quarter: 23,591 million dollars, 10.4% more than in 2025. The government displays it as proof of nearshoring and the Plan México (El Financiero).
The breakdown cools the applause: 22,222 million, nearly all of it, was reinvested earnings, money already in the country. New investment barely reached 1,705 million. Firms reinvest; few make new bets (IMCO).
The US supplied 43.3% of the total, just as the USMCA is under review. The concentration is both anchor and risk: the capital that sustains the figure depends on the very neighbor with whom Mexico negotiates tariffs (Expansión).
In brief
Rocha Moya: the clock ran out. On June 27 the 60 days the treaty gives the US to hand over extradition evidence elapsed. Sheinbaum had warned that, without it, Mexico can decline the former governor’s detention (Infobae).
Jalisco opens the water wallet. On June 29 the Jalisco government announced a plan of 30 actions and four hydraulic works worth over 20,000 million pesos for the Guadalajara metro area: a new aqueduct and modernized plants after 25 years without deep investment (Quadratín).
The BMV went down for two hours. The Mexican stock exchange halted trading for more than two hours on Monday; the group clarified it was not a failure of its trading engine. In the money market, the M10 bond closed at 8.91% against the Treasury at 4.37% (Investing, El Financiero).
LP-gas theft in Ecatepec. SSPC, FGR and Semar seized 12,507 liters of LP gas, three tanker trucks and one person in the State of Mexico, part of the weekend security report (gob.mx).
Querétaro: 500M pesos for the neighborhood. On June 28 Querétaro announced close to 500 million pesos for drainage, drinking water and paving in the state capital: basic neighborhood infrastructure, not a ribbon-cutting megaproject (Quadratín).
On the radar
Jul 1 — USMCA: the three countries say whether they back the 16-year extension and the formal review begins.
mid-Jul — Metapa must scale to 28 million sterile flies a week: a gauge of whether the US reopens the border to live cattle.
Jul 20 — 3rd round of the USMCA in Mexico, with the farm and energy on the table.
Gulf — if the weekend truce breaks again, WTI clears 70 comfortably and pressures the peso.