BlackPaper, today
Morena delays judicial election to 2028; CNTE seizes Oaxaca airport; U.S. strikes Iran while negotiating in Doha; record exports; Andy exits Morena
Five minutes to stay informed.
Morena votes to delay the judicial election to 2028
The Constitutional Affairs Committee approved 29-11 moving the election of judges and magistrates from 2027 to June 2028. It reduces candidacies and tightens filters in the evaluation committees (Proceso).
Two more Monreal bills advance in parallel: election nullification for foreign interference and an anti-narco-candidatecommission. Deadline: June 3 — the Constitution bars electoral rule changes within 90 days of an election year (El Financiero).
The Bar Association: the delay “does not fix structural problems.” MC accused Morena of “fixing its own disaster.”The $2 billion peso savings the INE cites is fiscal; the real savings are political (La Política Online).
BlackPaper comment: Morena delays because it lost. The 2025 judicial election was a turnout disaster. Fixing it would mean canceling; delaying means buying time to co-opt the committees that screen candidates.
The CNTE seizes Oaxaca’s airport
Day two of the indefinite strike. Section 22 blocked Oaxaca’s airport and seized Pemex facilities. Only pedestrian access allowed. 60,000 teachers in the streets; 850,000 students out of class in 12,000 schools (Heraldo Oaxaca).
The demands haven’t changed: a 100% salary raise, repeal of the ISSSTE Law, and scrapping Afores. The June 1 national strike threatens 10 states and collides with the FIFA Fan Fest in the Zócalo, 16 days before the opening match (Infobae).
BlackPaper comment: Seizing an airport is a qualitative leap. If the government tolerates the escalation, the CNTE proves it can shut down critical infrastructure without consequence. If it cracks down, it breaks with its own base.
The U.S. bombs Iran while negotiating in Doha
The Pentagon carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran: it destroyed missile sites and two vessels laying minesin Hormuz. Iran shot down a Reaper drone and denounced “bad faith” (Fortune, NBC News).
Brent bounced +3% to $99.58 after dropping 6.4% Sunday on deal expectations. Ghalibaf stayed in Doha for Qatar-mediated talks. Trump: negotiations are “progressing” but more strikes will follow “if they collapse” (CNBC).
BlackPaper comment: Bombing and negotiating at the same time isn’t a contradiction — it’s the doctrine. But every “self-defense” strike gives Tehran‘s hawks a pretext to sabotage the deal from within.
Record exports, but with a catch
INEGI reported $72.042 billion in exports for April — an all-time high. Annual growth of 32.6%. Trade surplus of $4.52 billion. Non-oil exports: +33.5%; oil exports just +7.9% with Hormuz closed (INEGI, La Jornada).
FDI in Q1 reached $23.591 billion — also a record. But the 34.8% growth to the U.S. coincides with Trump‘s pre-tariff window. If tariffs rise, the boom reveals itself as front-loading: pulled-forward purchases, not new installed capacity (Expansión).
BlackPaper comment: Record exports and record dependency. 34.8% growth to a single destination isn’t diversification — it’s concentration disguised as success. If Trump triggers tariffs, the surplus evaporates.
Andy exits Morena: the last name no longer cuts it
López Beltrán resigned from Morena‘s Secretary of Organization and the National Elections Commission. He’s running for federal deputy in Tabasco’s District VI — his home turf and AMLO‘s (El Financiero).
Morena released his résumé: no college degree, but 10 million registered members under his watch. The PAN read “nervousness” within. Infobae revealed the real rupture was with Luisa María Alcalde over the 2025 electoral defeats(Infobae).
BlackPaper comment: From the national leadership to a Tabasco congressional seat: not a promotion — an orderly retreat. Morena shakes off Andy before 2027 so his wear doesn’t drag the party in the midterms.
In brief
Maru Campos to sue the AG’s office. The governor of Chihuahua filed a complaint against the FGR for violating her constitutional immunity with the summons over the CIA case. She will appear tomorrow, May 27, in Ciudad Juárez (El Imparcial).
Trump proposes NDAs for federal workers. The OPM published a confidentiality agreement covering pre-decisional and internal information. It applies to current and former employees. The ACLU: it “violates the First Amendment” (CNN, Al Jazeera).
Israel strikes 70 sites in Lebanon. The IDF carried out one of the heaviest days of bombing since the April ceasefire. It evacuated Nabatieh, north of the Litani. Total toll: 3,185 dead and 9,633 wounded. Rubio promoted the ceasefire negotiator (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel).
Ebola with no vaccine: WHO declares PHEIC. The Bundibugyo outbreak in the DRC and Uganda totals 105 confirmed and 906 suspected cases with 233 deaths. No vaccine exists for this strain; the most advanced candidate is 6-9 months away (WHO).
Mexico hosts Iran for the World Cup. Sheinbaum confirmed that the Iranian squad will stay in Tijuana because the U.S. refused to host them. Their first two matches are in Los Angeles. The diplomatic gesture comes while Washington bombs Tehran (Proceso).
On the radar
May 27 — Maru Campos appears before the FGR in Ciudad Juárez. If charges are filed, the immunity vs. federal authority conflict escalates.
May 27 — Floor vote on the judicial reform. If it clears with a two-thirds majority, it goes to the Senate the same day.
Jun 1 — CNTE national strike and encampment in the Zócalo. Collision with FIFA Fan Fest setup.
Jun 1 — The U.S. Senate returns. Votes on the $72 billion ICE/CBP package.
Jun 11 — World Cup 2026 opening match at Estadio Azteca.
Collateral damage
Brent bounces to $99.58 but remains below the $100 threshold Pemex needs at 1.61M bpd output. Oil exports grew 7.9% versus 33.5% for non-oil — the fiscal engine is decoupled from the manufacturing boom.
If Hormuz stays closed, fertilizers remain +39% higher and Mexico’s fall harvest pays the bill. The $4.52 billion surplus hides the fact that U.S. dependency reached 85% of total exports.
The seizure of Oaxaca’s airport coincides with peak tourist season. The cost isn’t just economic: every day without consequences for the CNTE normalizes shutting down critical infrastructure as a union bargaining tool.