BlackPaper, today
The world is watching Mexico and, for once, the news from abroad helps: the war eases, crude falls, the peso firms. At home, the government shuts the door on the CNTE
Five minutes to stay informed.
With the World Cup under way and the planet watching, for once the news from abroad helps: the Gulf war eases, crude plunges and the peso firms. But at home the government shuts the door on the CNTE, and the week of the Fed and the USMCA decides everything.
The closed door
Sheinbaum ends the negotiation
On June 13, the CNTE assembly voted to keep the strike: 6,337 to 6,162. The walkout is over 20 days old. Today, instead of blockades, it opens free tolls in several states, without lifting the sit-in (El Universal).
At the June 15 briefing, Sheinbaum shut the door: no more tables, “the government already made its offers.” The school-by-school consultation moves to August. Oaxaca and Chiapas rejected the recess and harden (El Financiero).
The government offers to defer —ending USICAMM by law in December— but says no to repealing the 2007 ISSSTE Law, the core demand. It isn’t a technical table: it’s a no wrapped in deadlines (Milenio).
BlackPaper Comment: Closing the negotiation mid-strike, with the world watching, isn’t firmness: it’s a bet on attrition. The conflict it didn’t negotiate isn’t put out with open tolls; it’s postponed.
The war that eases
US and Iran strike a deal; Hormuz reopens
On June 14, the US and Iran announced a truce framework: a 60-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in 30 days. Crude plunged: WTI fell near 5%, to about 81 dollars, a two-month low (La Tercera).
It’s a turn: the war that was escalating —the Apache downed last week— now eases. But the signing is still at risk: Israel bombed Beirut the same day and Trump told it to stop. Iran conditions the deal (Bloomberg).
For Mexico, the relief is ambiguous: cheap crude cuts Pemex revenue and squeezes the treasury, but it lowers gasoline and the subsidy. The peace that helps the consumer costs the fisc (CNBC).
BlackPaper Comment: Mexico’s economy prays for two opposite things: pricey crude for the treasury and peace for gasoline. This week peace won —and, once again, a foreign war decides it.
The firm peso and Warsh’s week
The Fed and the USMCA, the two judges
The peso opened Monday at 17.19 per dollar, its firmest in weeks, riding the optimism of peace and falling crude. The stock market rose 1.3%. It’s not strength of its own: GDP fell 0.6% in the quarter (El Cronista).
On Tuesday and Wednesday the Fed decides —Warsh‘s first—. The market gives 97% to no move in the rate, but the dot plot may signal hikes. If the tone hardens, the peso’s carry cools (Investing).
And on the 16-17 the USMCA‘s 2nd round begins, with the July 1 deadline looming. Banxico, with its rate at 6.50% and a technical recession, has no room: it can’t cut without hurting the peso or hike without choking the economy (El Financiero).
BlackPaper Comment: The peso firms because of what happens in Hormuz and Washington, not in Mexico. A country that depends on foreign decisions for its currency has no monetary sovereignty: it has luck.
Sovereignty in the fine print
Mexico-US: figures and a threat
On June 12, 15 US agencies and their Mexican counterparts met in the new Bilateral Group (BIG). Figures: −76% in fentanyl seizures at the border, 2,300 labs dismantled, 36,000 weapons seized (Latinus).
But drug czar Sara Carter warned —quoted at the June 15 briefing— that without cooperation the US will strike the cartels directly. Sheinbaum replied she won’t tolerate violating sovereignty, with no further detail (El Financiero).
The communiqué touts cooperation without subordination, but leaves in the fine print “operational coordination mechanisms” left undefined. That ambiguity —as in Mérida, 2008— is what breeds friction for years (Proceso).
BlackPaper Comment: The figures serve both governments; the fine print, neither. A deal that doesn’t define what Washington may do on Mexican soil doesn’t protect sovereignty: it leaves it to interpretation.
Volaris-Viva: the sky in two hands
The merger the World Cup makes urgent
Volaris jumped 5.75% on Friday, the IPC‘s biggest gainer. Behind it, its merger with Viva Aerobus —Grupo Más Vuelos, already approved by shareholders— is still stalled before the competition regulator (El CEO).
Together they’d hold near 70% of the domestic market. And they already act as a bloc: Volaris opened 33 new routes as the World Cup drives demand for flights in the three host cities (Proceso).
It’s not dominance from strength: Volaris posted a loss in the quarter despite higher revenue. The merger is about survival. The regulator chooses between less competition or a low-cost airline at risk (Aviación News).
BlackPaper Comment: When two rivals become one because alone they can’t survive, the problem isn’t greed: it’s a market that punishes the one who invests. Holding 70% isn’t competing; it’s surrendering.
Expropriating for the State
The official gazette expropriates for its own train
The June 15 official gazette (DOF) expropriated 19,674 m² of private property in Huimanguillo, Tabasco, in favor of the Isthmus Railway —a Navy-run state firm—. The cause: the train’s FA Branch (Puente Libre).
The direct beneficiary is a State firm, not a civil end. The compensation amount wasn’t published: impossible to know whether it pays market value or just tax appraisal in a municipality of high agrarian conflict (DOF).
The Isthmus is sold to investors as a logistics hub, but each opaque expropriation erodes certainty over property. The State asks for private trust while taking private land for itself (Puente Libre).
BlackPaper Comment: A State that expropriates for its own train and won’t say how much it pays sends a signal to every investor: here property is worth whatever the government decides. Certainty is infrastructure too.
Guerrero: fewer dead
The drop no one audits
Guerrero, for a decade the most violent state, reports −33.3% in homicides in the first four months: Acapulco −39%, Chilpancingo −46%, Taxco at zero. The figure is from the SESNSP and the state government (El Universal).
The data is real, but no one audits it from outside. A drop in homicides can mean less combat and more control by a single group: extortion and displacement aren’t measured by the same indicator (El Financiero).
While Guerrero falls, Chiapas and Michoacán accelerate displacements. The question stays open: who controls the corridors to Zihuatanejo and Tierra Caliente? The peace of the data isn’t the peace of the territory (Reforma).
BlackPaper Comment: That homicides are falling is good news; that no one can verify why isn’t. When violence recedes without the State dismantling the crime, the calm may belong to another owner.
In brief
FOVISSSTE in pesos. Sheinbaum announced on the 15th that UMA-indexed mortgages convert to fixed pesos: relief for over 400,000 borrowers, but the cost is absorbed by the ISSSTE, already in deficit (El Financiero).
Pemex, clock ticking. With crude falling, S&P‘s negative outlook on Pemex and CFE (May) grows more pressing: a downgrade would drag the sovereign (El Financiero).
Colombia, to a runoff. On June 21, De la Espriella (right, 43.7%) against Cepeda (left, 40.9%); before that, a failed attempt to suspend Petro (CNN).
Sonora, hospital at the limit. ISSSTE workers in Hermosillo call a sit-in over electrical failures and 40°C; Durazo: “it’s not a magic wand“ (El Universal).
On the radar
Jun 16-17 — The Fed (Warsh’s debut) and the USMCA‘s 2nd round.
Jun 19 — Possible signing of the US-Iran deal, if Israel stops in Lebanon.
Jun 21 — Presidential runoff in Colombia.
~Jun 30 / Jul 1 — The Rocha Moya deadline and the USMCA deadline.
Olinia — will SECIHTI disclose the Rocketel contract?