BlackPaper, today
Inflation falls to 3.37%, a five-year low, but core is still stuck and the Fed won’t help; Sheinbaum sharpens her tone against Salazar over El Mayo; and a Mexican dies in ICE custody
Five minutes to stay informed.
Inflation eases, but not all the way
June prints 3.37%, the lowest since December 2020
Headline inflation fell to 3.37% year-on-year in June, its third straight monthly drop and the lowest level since December 2020. The CPI fell 0.27% on the month and the figure surprised the market to the downside (Excélsior).
The close-up tempers the cheer: core —the one that matters— is still at 4.12%, far from 3%. And the Fed minutes warn that cuts are not its path, which trims the room for Banxico (Milenio).
BlackPaper Comment: Inflation at 3.37% is real good news, not rhetoric. But the rate is set by core, stuck near 4%; with a Fed that won’t ease, Banxico has less room than the headline promises. The relief is for the wallet, not yet for credit.
El Mayo and the sovereignty that looks outward
Sheinbaum accuses Salazar of “omission and lies”
Sheinbaum sharpened her tone in the El Mayo case: she accused former ambassador Ken Salazar of “omission and lies“ for denying, for two years, the US hand that the FBI itself showed off by donating the plane to a museum (Aristegui).
The government frames it as a sovereignty violation. But the outward focus dodges the other question: why Zambada operated for forty years untouched by Mexico, with a protection that US courts have already documented (Excélsior).
BlackPaper Comment: Protesting the FBI is legitimate and convenient at once: it points at the neighbor. Sovereignty was lost earlier, in the bribes a jury already proved up to the cabinet. The real grievance didn’t cross the border; it stayed home, and no mañanera investigates that one.
The Fed is in no hurry
The minutes cool the bet on cuts
The June FOMC minutes left the rate at 3.50-3.75% and a clear message: cuts are not “the default path.” Inflation persists, pushed by the Middle East war and AI spending (Federal Reserve).
For Mexico, the message lands hard. A dollar whose rate won’t fall caps Banxico and sustains pressure on the peso, which closed nearly flat at 17.56. Room to cut here depends, again, on there (Investing).
BlackPaper Comment: Mexican monetary policy is set, in part, in Washington. With the Fed pinned by the inflation of its own war and its AI boom, Banxico may want to cut and be unable to: easing alone, with the Fed above, punishes the peso. Autonomy has a ceiling, and it’s someone else’s.
A Mexican dies in ICE custody
Mexico moves from the diplomatic note to the criminal complaint
After the death of Mexican national Lorenzo Salgado during an ICE operation, the government announced it will harden its strategy: dropping diplomatic notes for criminal complaints over alleged human-rights violations (Infobae).
The shift runs deep. Mexico admits the formal protest doesn’t stop the raids and seeks a more litigious footing against Trump‘s migration policy. The bet is judicial; the outcome, uncertain (El Financiero).
BlackPaper Comment: Escalating to the criminal track is a signal as valid as it is limited. A citizen dead in custody demands an answer; but the route through someone else’s courts is slow and doubtful. Mexico rediscovers that its influence ends where the neighbor’s border begins.
No new taxes (nor on inheritances)
Sheinbaum rules out raising the tax burden
Sheinbaum shut the door on new taxes and, specifically, on taxing inheritances. The pledge: not to touch the tax burden nor add new levies for the rest of the term (Infobae).
The announcement sounds good and hides a dilemma. Without more revenue and with growth falling, the fiscal target is met by cutting what gets spent: the underspend that already chills public works. Not raising taxes has its bill too (El Financiero).
BlackPaper Comment: Not creating taxes is defensible, and this house applauds it. But the books balance on the other side: if less comes in, less is spent than promised. Discipline by underspend is no virtue; it’s the adjustment nobody signs and everyone pays in stalled investment.
In brief
The Bolsa didn’t cheer. The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.75% to 66,107 points despite the good inflation print; the peso closed nearly flat at 17.56. The Fed weighed more than the CPI (Investing).
El Niño, stronger. Sheinbaum warned of a more intense El Niño in 2026-2027: more rain and cyclones in the north and a risk of drought in 2027. Pressure on water, farming and the disaster budget (Infobae).
Panama at the palace. The president received Panama’s leader; on the table, migration and the trade agenda of a route that matters to Mexico (Milenio).
The Section 122 clock. The 10% Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24; the 3rd round of the USMCA is on the 20th. Two dates the peso is already watching (El Financiero).
Where the 3.37% comes from. The CPI breakdown: avocado and housing pushed up; high-consumption vegetables pulled down. The basket explains the slowdown (Excélsior).
On the radar
Jul 20 — El Mayo‘s sentencing in Brooklyn and the 3rd round of the USMCA.
Jul 24 — The Section 122 tariffs expire.
Banxico — its next decision, with core at 4% and the Fed on pause.
ICE — Mexico’s criminal complaint, the first test of the judicial route.