Morena Is Shielding Itself for 2030: Arturo Villegas

Two reforms that look technical. Together, they’re an insurance policy against losing power.

Some reforms look technical, even well-intentioned. But seen together, against the political backdrop Mexico is living through, they stop looking like coincidences.

The electoral reforms championed by Claudia Sheinbaum and Ricardo Monreal — one to “prevent” people tied to organized crime from running for office, another to annul elections whenever “foreign interference” exists — are a preventive move. A way to shield themselves against a scenario the ruling party considers increasingly likely: losing political control and facing international pressure.

The First Lock

Inside the National Palace there is clear unease that Morena could be designated a terrorist organization, because the accusations of links between political figures and organized crime are no longer just a domestic debate; the issue is now a priority for the United States and has reached the international stage.

That is why Claudia Sheinbaum is pushing a reform that would supposedly keep figures linked to organized crime from competing for public office. In a speech it sounds perfect, but the problem always lies in who runs the institutions… all of them loyal to the regime.

It is a fact that the president reportedly raised this proposal with U.S. Secretary of Security Markwayne Mullin, in a conversation where she reportedly committed to making the commission within the INE — Mexico’s national electoral authority — in charge of the process autonomous, technocratic and non-ideological.

The question is unavoidable: who will decide which politician is tied to organized crime and which is not?

Because in a country with politically captured institutions, any “technical” commission can end up working as an instrument of political control.

The Second Lock

The second piece came by way of Ricardo Monreal.

His proposal calls for annulling elections whenever there is foreign intervention aimed at altering the popular will. The problem is that the wording is so ambiguous that almost anything could fall under that definition: political, economic, diplomatic or media pressure.

From international investigative journalism to social media posts, anything could become grounds for electoral dispute. Even a tweet could be read as “media pressure.”

And if the result ends up in litigation, the matter would land at the TEPJF — the federal electoral court — a body currently captured by the ruling party.

It does not take much imagination to foresee which way certain rulings might lean when the Electoral Tribunal has to decide whether or not to annul an election.

These reforms look less like a strengthening of democracy and more like an attempt to “bandage the finger before the cut.”

The Scenario They Truly Fear

There is one scenario that is particularly uncomfortable for Morena: a victory for the right in Brazil and Colombia, combined with the inevitable fall of the Cuban regime. This scenario could unfold as early as the end of this year.

That would leave Mexico as practically the last great bastion of Latin American socialism in the region.

Without international backing, Morena would have far greater difficulty legitimizing fraudulent electoral processes. On top of that, any allegation about supposed organized-crime operations in Mexican elections would carry continental impact.

And here the big question arises:

If Morena were to lose a major election in 2027 or 2030, what would stop the ruling party from claiming “foreign interference” to try to annul the result?

Monreal’s law opens precisely that door.

When a Regime Feels Threatened

The Fourth Transformation — the movement that governs Mexico — understands something that a few years ago seemed unthinkable: it no longer controls the narrative, at home or abroad.

In the digital arena it has practically lost the cultural battle.

And when a regime senses its power under threat, it rarely becomes more flexible. It becomes more defensive. More reactive. More dangerous.

A Necessary Mention

I want to make a special mention of the journalists, researchers and citizens who, every single day, call out, document and denounce corruption, abuse and government incompetence.

Many of them do so while facing smear campaigns, threats and political pressure.

May God bless them and keep them always.

Because calling out power, when power does not want to be called out, takes courage.